A new epidemiological model by the International Hellenic University and the University of West Attica
The International Hellenic University announces the results of the research work on a new epidemiological model, based on self-organized criticality (SOC), elaborated by its researchers Dr Stavros G. Stavrinides (School of Science and Technology) and Assoc. Prof. Michael Hanias (Physics Dept.) in collaboration with researchers from the University of West Attica.
This research has already attracted the interest of the community and the Hellenic National News Agency (AMNA) has already reported the related results: https://www.amna.gr/macedonia/article/447921/Ereuna-DIPAE-kai-PADA-gia-ton-koronoio
The proposed model is coming from the area of Critical Phenomena Statistics and Complexity. It has the ability to distinguish viruses according to their aggression, further treating epidemics as self-organized systems, a mechanism widely followed (non-exhaustively) by natural systems. The arising complexity of the system allows for its self-organization; when the system freely evolves (approach of the herd immunity), the epidemic spread takes place in a smooth way, demonstrating low durations, as long as the virus possesses characteristics of low aggressiveness. Otherwise, (in the case of aggressive viruses) the system is led to uncontrollable situations, both in terms of the patients’ percentage and duration of the epidemic.
The proposed model reinforces, proves and confirms the approach of imposing restrictive measures, in a timely and consistent way, is not only to the right direction, but it appears to be imperative.
A preprint of this work has already been published in the digital repository arxiv.org (University of Cornell): https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00682, and has been submitted for publication to an international scientific journal.